Risk Analysis Methodologies     

 

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1.    Qualitative risk analysis methodologies

1.1    Preliminary Risk Analysis

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1.2    Hazard and Operability studies (HAZOP)

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1.3    Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA / FMECA)

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1.4    Discussion and Conclusion

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2    Tree based techniques

2.1    Fault tree analysis

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2.2    Event tree analysis

Fault tree analysis - consists of an analysis of possible causes starting at a system level and working down through the system, sub-system, equipment and component, identifying all possible causes. (What faults might we expect? How may they be arrived at?)

Assessment methods which allow quantifying the probability of an accident and the risk associated with plant operation based on the graphic description of accident sequences employ the fault tree or event tree analysis (FTA or ETA) techniques.

Key Point: Fault Tree Analysis is a logical method of analysing how and why a disaster could occur. It is a great technique for working out the overall probability of a catastrophic event occurring, such as a melt-down in a nuclear power plant where the substantial cost involved is obviously necessary.

These methods are used to carry out a mathematical analysis of the accident sequences and have been used to determine the reliability of electronic systems. They are also widely used in the nuclear industry but may not be suitable for general assessment of major hazard because it involves substantial effort and cost.

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2.3    Cause-Consequence Analysis

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2.4    Management Oversight Risk Tree

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2.5    Safety Management Organization Review Technique

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2.6    Discussion and Conclusion

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3    Methodologies for analysis of dynamic system

3.1    GO method

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3.2    Digraph/Fault Graph

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3.3    Markov Modelling

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3.4    Dynamic Event Logic Analytical Methodology

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3.5    Dynamic Event Tree Analysis Method

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3.6    Discussion and Conclusion

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Conclusions

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